中国一年一度的两会刚刚闭幕，每年两会的焦点都是政府工作报告。今年政府工作报告聚焦中国经济发展，回顾了2023年经济形势，并制定了2024年的经济发展目标和实施方案。近期，中国经济形势引起各方关注，美欧一些媒体炒作中国经济“见顶论”，并抛出不少“令人迷惑”的问题。对此，我想谈一下自己的看法：

“迷惑”一：5%左右的经济增长目标能否实现？

5%左右的经济增长目标是一个经过奋斗可以实现的目标。这一目标符合“十四五”规划的年度要求，与经济增长的潜力基本匹配，展现了中国政府积极进取、奋发有为的风格。中国拥有充足的宏观政策工具、超大规模市场，城乡区域等进一步协调发展也带来了巨大的市场潜力和发展潜能。中国拥有完整的产业体系，高素质人力资源十分丰富，软硬件基础设施网络更加完善，创新能力快速提升，新动能迅速形成并加快壮大，经济抗冲击能力和韧性持续增强。今年春节假期，中国有22.93亿人次跨区域流动，国内游客出游总花费6326.87亿元，比2019年同期增长7.7%。今年前2个月，中国货物贸易进出口总值6.61万亿元，同比增长8.7%。中国经济处于稳步复苏期和结构调整关键期，内生动能充足，持续增长潜力很大，不存在经济增长“见顶”。

“迷惑”二：中国未来增长动力来自哪里？

今年的政府工作报告首次提出，大力推进现代化产业体系建设，加快发展新质生产力。这是中国经济激发潜力、重塑动能的关键之举。2022年，中国以新产业、新业态、新模式为特征的“新三化”经济增加值跃升至21万亿元。这一转变标志着中国摆脱了传统上对房地产作为主要驱动力的依赖，开始走上创新驱动的增长轨道。2023年，中国电动汽车、锂电池、光伏产品“新三样”出口突破万亿元，同比增长近30%；数字经济加快发展，5G用户普及率超过50%；中国申请人通过《专利合作条约》提交的国际专利申请量连续四年位居世界第一。新质生产力已在实践中形成并展示出对高质量发展的强劲推动力、支撑力。

“迷惑”三：外资会不会撤离中国？

越来越多跨国企业认识到，投资中国就是投资未来。尽管2023年相较往年略有下降，但中国吸引的外资仍高达1.13万亿元人民币，创历史第三高水平。中国2023年新设外商投资企业53,766家，增幅高达40%。今年1月，在大项目带动等因素作用下，法国和瑞典对华投资同比分别增长了25倍和11倍，德国、澳大利亚和新加坡对华投资同比分别增加了 212%、186% 和 77%。最近，苹果公司宣布追加在华投资，将在深圳新设应用实验室。近五年外商在华直接投资收益率约9%，在国际上处于较高水平。中国已成为最佳投资目的地的代名词，下一个“中国”还是中国。政府工作报告提出，扩大高水平对外开放，促进互利共赢。中国将主动对接高标准国际经贸规则，稳步扩大制度型开放，推动外贸质升量稳，加大吸引外资力度，推动高质量共建“一带一路”走深走实，深化多双边和区域经济合作。中国将推进中国—东盟自贸区3.0版谈判，寻求加入《数字经济伙伴关系协定》及《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》，全面深入参与世贸组织改革，推动建设开放型世界经济，让更多合作共赢成果惠及各国人民。

中国和新西兰都是经济全球化和贸易自由化的受益者，近年来双方务实合作取得丰硕成果。正是看好中国市场巨大潜力，佳沛奇异果2024产季首艘包船近日驶向中国。新西兰A2已成为中国市场上第五大婴配奶粉品牌。中国新能源产品对新西兰市场是有益补充，有助于新西兰实现2050“碳中和”发展目标。中新双方要继续共同维护自由贸易，反对以“去风险”为名推行单边主义、保护主义，进一步携手构建人类命运共同体，促进中新互利合作，续写中新友好故事新篇章。

英文版如下：

What does the Government Work Report tell about the Chinese Economy?

The annual sessions of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), collectively known as the "Two Sessions," have just concluded in China. The focal point of these sessions every year is the Government Work Report. This year's Government Work Report centred on the development of the Chinese economy, reviewing the economic situation of 2023 and outlining the economic development goals and implementation plans for 2024. Recently, significant attention has been drawn to the economic situation in China, with some media outlets in the United States and Europe hyping up the so-called “peak China” and raising numerous "puzzling" questions. Considering this, I would like to share my own perspective:

“Puzzle” One: Is it feasible for China to achieve the economic growth target of around 5%?

The economic growth target around 5% is achievable with efforts. This target aligns with the annual requirements of the "14th Five-Year Plan". It demonstrates the proactive and diligent approach of the Chinese government and is generally in line with the potential for economic progress. China boasts abundant macroeconomic policy tools and an enormous market. The coordinated development between urban and rural areas provides significant market potential and development prospects. China has a robust industrial system, high-quality human resources and sophisticated infrastructure networks. And its  innovation capabilities has been rapidly improving. All these factors contribute to China’s economic resilience against shocks. During this year's Spring Festival holiday, China witnessed 2.293 billion cross-regional trips, with domestic tourists spending a total of 633 billion yuan, marking a 7.7% increase from the same period in 2019. In the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods reached 6.61 trillion yuan, an 8.7% year-on-year increase. The Chinese economy is undergoing a steady recovery with transformations of economic structure. It has ample endogenous momentum and significant potential for sustained growth. It is groundless to make the conclusion that China’s economy has passed its peak.

“Puzzle” Two: Where does China's future growth momentum stem from?

This year's Government Work Report advocated for the construction of a modern industrial system and new quality productive forces — a crucial move for reshaping the Chinese economy. In 2023, exports of China's electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products  exceeded one trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 30%; the digital economy was boosted, with a penetration rate of 5G user surpassing 50%; and the number of international patent applications submitted by Chinese applicants through the Patent Cooperation Treaty has ranked first in the world for four consecutive years. These new quality productive forces have already been formed in practice and demonstrated strong support for high-quality development. 

“Puzzle” Three: Will foreign investment leave China?

More and more multinational companies realized that investing in China means investing in the future. Despite a slight decrease compared to previous years, foreign investment attracted by China in 2023 still reached 1.13 trillion yuan, marking the third-highest level in history. In 2023, China established 53,766 new foreign-funded enterprises, a remarkable 40% increase. In January this year, driven by such factors as major projects, investments from France and Sweden in China increased by 25 times and 11 times year-on-year, respectively. Investment from Germany, Australia, and Singapore also soared by 212%, 186%, and 77% respectively. Recently, Apple announced additional investment in China and planed to establish a new laboratory in Shenzhen. Over the past five years, the return on foreign direct investment in China has been around 9%, a relatively high level internationally. China has been regarded as the most ideal place to invest. The next "China" is still China, and there is no alternative for the opportunities that China offers. The Government Work Report proposes to expand high-level opening-up and promote mutually beneficial cooperation. China will actively align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expand institutional opening-up, promote the improvement of foreign trade in both quality and quantity, increase efforts to attract foreign investment, promote high-quality construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, and deepen multilateral and bilateral economic cooperation. China will advance negotiations on the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version, seek to join the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement(DEPA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership(CPTPP), comprehensively and deeply participate in the reform of the World Trade Organisation, and promote the construction of an open world economy, bringing more cooperative and win-win outcomes to the people of all countries.

Both China and New Zealand are beneficiaries of economic globalization and trade liberalization. Pragmatic cooperation between the two sides has yielded fruitful results in past years. The immense potential of the Chinese market has been recognized by New Zealand enterprises. The first chartered ship carrying Zespri kiwifruits for 2024 recently set sail for China. A2, a famous New Zealand dairy brand, has already become the fifth largest infant formula brand in the Chinese market. Chinese new energy products become good complement for the New Zealand market and contribute to New Zealand's carbon neutrality by 2050. China and New Zealand should work together to safeguard free trade, oppose unilateralism and protectionism in the name of "de-risking". it is high time for China and New Zealand to enhance collaboration to build a global community with shared future. Let’s promote mutual beneficial cooperation and embark on new phases of friendship and cooperation between the two nations.

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